Civil Engineering January/February 2021 | Vol 29 No 1

26 January/February 2021 Civil Engineering INTRODUCTION The Covid-19 pandemic has had major impacts on all sectors of the South African economy. Like in the rest of world, transport has been severely af- fected by both demand- and supply-side impacts. On the demand-side, major shifts have occurred in people’s work, shopping, and social activities, which in turn have led to changes in travel volumes and traffic patterns. Changing work patterns such as work from home (WFH), staggered working hours and retrenchments caused a reduction in the number of trips workers are making and their choice of travel mode. Health regulations require public transport operators to restrict the occupancy levels of vehicles, further exacerbating financial distress among operators. Vandalism and theft of com- muter rail infrastructure have decimated train services. These supply-side changes, coupled with commuters’ con- cerns about hygiene on public transport, have led to shifts in public transport use that may affect its sustainability for years to come 1 . Civil engineers are grappling with what these changes mean for the future of the transport industry, and for society at large. A key question is which changes in demand and supply will persist, and whether a “new normal” will emerge that puts us on a fundamentally different trajectory than before the pandemic. It is still too early to answer these questions, but a better understanding of current behaviour changes can help point the way towards likely future trends. This article explores some of these changes by examining the impacts of Covid-19 on work and travel patterns in Gauteng, based on a survey of more than 1 000 Gauteng residents, conducted in November 2020. The survey will be re- peated in 2021 to track changes over time and will also be used to compare results across multiple cities in Australia and South America. The survey was funded by the BRT+ Centre of Excellence, which is financed by the Volvo Research and Educational Foundations (VREF). At the time of the survey South Africa was on alert level 1, while infec- tion numbers were relatively low and before the arrival of the second wave of infections. THE SURVEY The survey was conducted by a market research company, who used their consumer panel to recruit respondents for the online questionnaire. The sample was restricted to adults older than 18 years residing in Gauteng (which includes the metropolitan areas of Johannesburg, Tshwane, and Ekurhuleni). The online recruitment under-sampled lower- income people, so it was supplemented by in-person recruitment undertaken at minibus-taxi ranks, bus stops and train stations. Potential respondents were ran- domly selected and provided with an in- ternet link via a QR-code to self-complete the questionnaire on their cell phones. An incentive was provided in the form of a chance to win a small cash prize. The final sample consisted of 1056 in- dividuals, consisting of 48% high-income, 8% medium-income, and 33% low-income people. The gender distribution was balanced (52% females). About 67% of respondents were either exclusive or occasional car users (including e-hailing), with the rest either public transport users (19%), people who walked and cycled (5%), or people who did not currently travel (9%). To correct for the over- representation of high-income people in the sample, the results below are based on a weighting by income and age group to match the population of workers in Gauteng obtained from the 2013 National Household Travel Survey. EFFECT OF COVID-19 ON TRAVEL PATTERNS To track how travel volumes have changed during the pandemic, we used cell phone app data reported by Google and Apple’s mobility reports. Figure 1 shows the trend in travel activity in Gauteng compared to a pre-Covid baseline 2 . At the height of alert level 5 in April 2020, driving decreased by more than 80%, after which it gradually rose again. By October 2020 (when the country was on the lowest alert level) car trips had recovered to normal levels, until the December holidays and the resurgent pandemic caused another drop-off. This suggests that the reduction in overall travel activity was relatively short-lived, and that trip-making is quite resilient. However, people adapted to ongoing restrictions and workplace closures by changing the nature of their trips. Google’s location-specific data show that throughout 2020, stays at residential locations remained above the baseline, while visits to work locations remained depressed. This is in line with continuing WFH practices. But reduced work travel was somewhat offset by rises in non-work trips, as illustrated by visits to grocery Transport Will the Covid-19 pandemic lead to lasting changes in travel patterns? Prof Christo Venter Centre for Transport Development University of Pretoria christo.venter@up.ac.za Dr Nicolaas Van Zyl Centre for Transport Development University of Pretoria kvz.bluemind@outlook.com Namatirai Cheure Centre for Transport Development University of Pretoria namacheure@gmail.com