Civil Engineering October 2021 | Vol 29 No 9

14 October 2021 Civil Engineering It should be noted that the SANRAL traffic data was sourced from a limited pool of count sites which may not be fully representative of Gauteng and eThekwini traffic volumes, however it provides an indication of possible conditions. Figures 5, 6 and 7 illustrate the data provided by each institution. Figure 7 illustrates the weekly traffic count data on the freeways in Cape Town collected using the video detection system (VDS). Some data gaps can be observed, which is due to the temporary failure of some VDS count stations. MAKING THE CONNECTION Next, we compare road traffic volumes to the working from home data. Figures 5, 6 and 7 illustrate traffic flows on freeways in Gauteng, Cape Town and eThekwini and show that, with the first national lockdown in March 2020, traffic volumes on the freeways plummeted compared to pre-Covid-19 traffic volumes. The traffic volumes then steadily rose to within 80% of pre-Covid-19 traffic volumes by August and September 2020. Traffic volumes then take another dip around January 2021, coinciding with more severe travel restrictions as part of South Africa’s second wave of Covid-19 infections. The same pattern emerged around June to August 2021 with South Africa’s third wave of Covid-19 infections. The figures show two characteristics: Q Q Traffic volumes during the second and third wave of Covid-19 infections do not decline as much as during the initial hard lockdown in March 2021 Q Q The traffic volumes observed on the freeways have not recovered to pre- Covid-19 level but get close (±80%). The trendlines however do not reflect that a relatively small (±20%) reduction in road traffic volumes can have a substantial im- pact on reduced road congestion – traffic congestion and traffic volumes is not a linear relationship. When combined with a change in times of day when travel occurs (the data only shows daily volumes), there could probably be a reduction in traffic congestion during peak hours and an improvement in travel times on freeways. Comparing the traffic data contained in Figures 5, 6 and 7 to the working from home data provided in Figure 4, it is ob- served that the traffic trend over the past 12 to 18 months oscillates up and down according to the level of travel restric- tions imposed nationally and the wave of infections, and has an upward trajectory, whereas the working from home trend line is downward from March 2020 to March 2021. In other words, working from home did not increase between March 2020 and March 2021 whereas freeway traffic volumes did. It would therefore be incorrect to assume that working from home has “taken off” since the start of the pandemic. While more traffic data is needed to draw firm conclusions, the authors have a hunch that South Africa’s socio-economic characteristics, income categories, employment levels, types of economic sectors and the consequent occupation groups can help explain the upward traffic trend lines illustrated above, and why the working from home trend has not continued upwards. IMPLICATIONS FOR TRANSPORT AND URBAN FORM Currently, the percentage of the labour force that works from home is low (around 7%), and it would not be too controversial to think that the impacts on transport planning and urban form would be minimal. Much of the inertia has to do with a large proportion of the South African workforce being employed in sectors of the economy that require a physical presence at a specific worksite or interpersonal interaction. The extent to which South Africans are working from home, therefore, has a direct relationship with the mix of activities undertaken in each occupation and their physical, spatial and interpersonal context. The impact of working from home in relation to Covid-19 and its effects on public trans- port ridership (and by extension public transport planning) has deliberately been excluded from this analysis as the jury is still out on how, when and why passenger numbers will rebound and whether there is a relationship with working from home. However, let us imagine a time five years from now, when society has hope- fully achieved population immunity from Covid-19, and perhaps 20 to 30 years from now where we have a much more diversified economy aligned to the Fourth Industrial Revolution, with new occupa- tions (information or data workers) that enable working from home on a much larger scale, say up to 20% or 25%. What would the implications be if we work from home to that level? Do we need to change anything and, if so, what? What should recovery and adaptation plans and policies consider? A shift to 20% or 25% of workers spending more time at home and less time at a traditional place of work could have a profound impact on our economy and transport investment decisions. To predict the implications of working from home on transport and urban form and planning is not easy, as it depends greatly on human behaviour, what economic and social activities we are involved in, the rate of economic growth, labour absorp- tion, unemployment, sustainability and environmental objectives, innovation, flexible working conditions and many more assumptions about future travel needs, mobility and digital technology advancement. Table 1 outlines some possible impli- cations and recommendations. It provides The Covid-19 pandemic has broken through cultural and technological barriers that prevented working from home in the past, setting in motion a shift in where work takes place, at least for some people. It has been the catalyst that has pushed us towards rethinking city resilience and sustainability. Currently, the percentage of the labour force that works from home is low (around 7%), and it would not be too controversial to think that the impacts on transport planning and urban form would be minimal. Much of the inertia has to do with a large proportion of the South African workforce being employed in sectors of the economy that require a physical presence at a specific worksite or interpersonal interaction.