Civil Engineering September 2021 | Vol 29 No 8

44 September 2021 Civil Engineering oP I N I ON IGNORANCE IS BLISS? T he one positive effect of former US president Donald J Trump is that he highlighted various aspects of ignorance. The election of Trump to the White House in 2016 seemed to add truth to world-renowned writer Mark Twain’s statement on people with political ambi- tion: “All you need in this life is ignorance and confidence, and then success is sure.” Trump’s constant Twitter rantings on a wide variety of subjects certainly added to a widely held perception of a buffoon masquerading as a world leader. The link to ignorance had been recog- nised by Charles Darwin who reportedly said, “Ignorance more frequently begets confidence than does knowledge. It is those who know little, and not those who know much, who positively assert that this or that problem will never be solved by science.” In more recent times this observation about confidence steeped in ignorance has gained an official term, the Dunning- Kruger effect, which is described as the “cognitive bias of illusory superiority and comes from people’s inability to recognise their lack of ability.” The Dunning-Kruger 1 effect is graphically illustrated in Figure 1. Even prior to Trump’s presidency, the Dunning-Kruger effect was described in authoritative academic journals. This effect is often described based on observa- tions of an “instant fundi” typically after a brief search on the internet (“Dr Google”) or other social media feeds which led to the description of misguided confidence versus real knowledge and experience. Trump certainly made many over- confident, ignorant claims on a variety of subjects to establish himself as a virtually permanent resident on the proverbial ‘Mount Stupid’, as illustrated in Figure 1. However, Trump’s lack of understanding and handling of the Covid-19 pandemic in the USA and the rest of the world is prob- ably the best example that such ignorance can have deadly consequences. Trump’s “breakthrough” statement on the use of bleach and powerful lights inside the body is the tip of the iceberg of his many claims and cemented a perception of ignorance and misplaced confidence. We live in the golden age of ignorance, which now spreads at the speed of light. Facebook and other social media conglomerates built their business models around algorithms that silo people into information bubbles or reinforce likeminded communities and deliberately create division and controversy. It is easy to find such self-reinforcing bubbles and echo chambers on virtually any subject on social media platforms. This has given exponential rise to conspiracy theories with devastating effect – just think of the impact of QAnon on USA politics. Information democratisation has also been a kind of dumbing down. It is very easy for anybody claiming to be an expert to circulate information without any form of quality control, credible fact checking, or peer review exercise. Close to home we find a well-documented example of studies on ignorance in our own midst, illustrating the false alure of such apparently plausible information: the saga of Thabo Mbeki and “the real cause of AIDS” is well documented and set back the fight against the virus with dire consequences for the general population of AIDS sufferers in South Africa. As illustrated in Figure 1, when feed- back and correction is given, the ‘Know- nothing’ situation is hopefully confirmed and often with a teachable spirit, possibly The ups and downs of ignorance in the roads and transportation field Dr Emile Horak Pr Eng, FSAICE Managing Director Kubu Consultancy emileh@global.co.za This article is a personal perspective and reflection on ignorance in the roads and transportation field, based on a presentation at the Roads Pavement Forum earlier this year. It deals with the definition of ignorance and the political and strategic use thereof in a technical field like roads and pavement engineering. Dunning-Kruger Effect Curve High Low Knowledge – Experience Confidence Competence Know-nothing Guru Peak of “Mount Stupid” Valley of Despair Slope of Enlightenment Plateu of Sustainability Figure 1 Dunning-Kruger effect of confidence versus knowledge and experience