Civil Engineering September 2021 | Vol 29 No 8

46 September 2021 Civil Engineering effect. Such a contemporary extreme example of how effective agnotology can be proves few of us are immune to the exposure of all sorts of agnotology creations. ORIGINS OF AGNOTOLOGY Proctor and others describe how the tobacco industry knew as early as the 1950/60s that smoking could be directly linked as the cause of cancers and death among smokers and later non-smokers exposed to secondary smoke. In fighting this perceived industry threat, the tobacco industry opted to deliberately create ignorance to stave off people learning the truth and to “fight science with sci- ence”. They created doubt and threw up smokescreens (excuse the pun) or “sand on the gears”. The tobacco industry developed “tobacco strategies” 9 where they funded decoy research to distract from critical questions. Their “friendly research” was literally used to jam scientific airwaves with easily consumable “research in- formation”. Such research typically had no peer review involved, and therefore no check on factual correctness. Their research was designed to create doubt by emphasising uncertainty in promoting supposed non-tobacco causes of cancer. In effect, this was a well-orchestrated misdirection campaign with significant funding over a long period. Their ap- proach was to promote that there are two sides to the story, as if the two sides are equal and trying to force false equivalency. It is interesting that even Trump used that strategy with the controversial August 2017 Charlottesville far right march and death of an innocent person. He infamously said: “There were good people on both sides”, thus deliberately equating the standing of the two sides, and therefore creating classic false equivalency. Proctor and others indicate that, due to the success of the “tobacco strategies”, such an approach was subsequently ad- opted by various institutes that represent substances with harmful and potentially harmful effect to humans. They mention examples such as the Beer Institute, Sugar Institute, Methyl Tertiary-Butyl Ether Taskforce, Salt Institute and lately the hydrocarbon energy field via various insti- tutes. The latter has been at the forefront of fighting various environmental issues. Global warming is one science area where there is clear evidence of “scientists” being very active in misrepresentation, suppression, attacking consensus positions, defending opposing but weaker positions in general, and creating the impression that controversy still surrounds issues where clear consensus had been reached. IMPACT OF IGNORANCE ON SERVICE DELIVERY So let us draw on our newfound defini- tion of ignorance and created ignorance (agnotology) to examine our own civil en- gineering environment. Service delivery as experienced by society at large primarily happens at the municipal level. Most municipal service delivery has a strong civil engineering input, be it maintenance of roads, water reticulation, stormwater management, sewerage and/or water treat- ment. All of these activities require ex- perienced and qualified civil engineering personnel as they are often technically complex and need to interface “civilly” with the end users. Following the Pareto Principle (also known as the 80/20 rule) it can be concluded that service delivery is highly dependent on the quality and number of people involved in municipal service delivery. This is where the biggest problem with service delivery lies. Following the end of the apartheid era it was logical that there would be cadre deployment by the ANC government. Cadre deployment is also happening elsewhere in the world where there was major political change, and the strategic intentions are generally well-intentioned towards upliftment of the previously disadvantaged. South Africa has now had 25 years of re-adjustment inclusive of cadre deployment and conclusions can be drawn. Some of the changes were posi- tive, but there are also obvious negative observable results. Most recently (11 and 12 August 2021), appearing in front of the Zondo Commission into State Capture, President Cyril Ramaphosa admitted that cadre deployment had problematic side effects 10 : “There were several instances where individuals appointed to positions may not have been fit-for-purpose or may not have had the necessary experience or qualifications” . Clearly there are significant political overtones to this issue. This can also be unpacked from another perspective though. As early as 2005, and later in 2007, the Numbers & Needs research and publications by Allyson Lawless 11 had already shown that municipalities were short of civil engineers, technolo- gists and technicians, with some 28% of municipalities having no in-house civil engineering capacity: “Research carried out both locally and internationally showed that the civil engineering capacity in South African municipalities was too low to deliver, operate and maintain local government infrastructure in a sustainable manner”. The new agnotology paradigm in civil society thus relates to the significant spin to paint the upside picture. Alas, this lack of qualified people has led to yet another demonstration of a manufactured Dunning-Kruger effect in real life. Service delivery at municipal, provincial and even central government level was clearly affected by unqualified persons who have been allowed into positions where they often assumed or were forced to assume the status of ‘Instant Experts’. Much can also be said about politicians in executive positions with a clear lack of under- standing of the complexity of service delivery in general. Surely the collective learning effort over the past 25 years has brought some of these persons down to the ‘Valley of Despair’, often at the despair and cost of affected communities. The question though remains as to whether there is any commitment to learning and gaining wisdom. This issue continues to be shrouded in political intent and spin doctor slang. Before we do restore compe- tent technical persons, at least at mid-level positions or better, top level technical executive positions, such appointments will continue to congregate on ‘Mount Stupid’. Just maybe the moves at Eskom may indicate the dawning of a new reality. “Seven thousand papers. This is the number of scientific articles produced with the support of the tobacco industry from the mid 1950s until 1990. It is estimated that the Council for Tobacco Research, which was sponsored by the large cigarette manufacturers, spent 450 million dollars on research over the same period. The purpose of the research was not primarily to oppose claims that smoking was bad for your health, but to distract the public with legitimate research on other harmful and contributing factors such as occupational hazards, radon and genetic dispositions.” – Kourny and Martin 8