Civil Engineering August 2022 | Vol 30 No 7

Civil Engineering August 2022 41 “The immediate and absolute priority for Africa and the international commu- nity is to bring modern and affordable en- ergy to all Africans – and our new report shows this can be achieved by the end of this decade through annual investment of $25 billion, the same amount needed to build just one new LNG terminal a year. It is morally unacceptable that the ongoing injustice of energy poverty in Africa isn’t being resolved when it is so clearly well within our means to do so,” adds Birol. THE SUSTAINABLE AFRICA SCENARIO The Africa Energy Outlook 2022 explores a Sustainable Africa Scenario in which all African energy-related development goals are achieved on time and in full. This in- cludes universal access to modern energy services by 2030 and the full implementa- tion of all African climate pledges. With demand for energy services in Africa set to grow rapidly, ensuring af- fordability is an urgent priority. Increased energy efficiency is essential for this, since it reduces fuel imports, eases strains on existing infrastructure and keeps con- sumer bills affordable. Expanded and improved electricity grids provide the backbone of Africa’s new energy systems in this scenario, and are powered increasingly by renewables. Africa is home to 60% of the best solar re- sources worldwide, but it currently holds only 1% of solar PV capacity. Already the cheapest source of power in many parts of Africa, solar is set to outcompete all other sources continent-wide by 2030. Renewables – including solar, wind, hydropower and geothermal – account for over 80% of new power generation capacity added by 2030 in the Sustainable Africa Scenario. While renewables are the driving force for Africa’s electricity sector this decade, the continent’s industrialisation relies in part on expanding natural gas use. More than 5 000 billion cubic metres (bcm) of natural gas resources have been discovered to date in Africa that have not yet been approved for development. These resources could provide an additional 90 bcm of gas a year by 2030, which may well be vital for Africa’s domestic fertiliser, steel, cement and water desalination industries. Cumulative CO 2 emissions from the use of these gas resources over the next 30 years would be around 10 billion tonnes. If these emissions were added to Africa’s cumula- tive total today, they would bring its share of global emissions to a mere 3.5%. Africa’s vast resources of minerals that are critical for multiple clean energy technologies are set to create new export markets but need to be managed well, with Africa’s revenues from critical mineral exports set to more than double by 2030. A number of low-carbon hydrogen projects are underway, focused primarily on producing ammonia for fertilisers, which would strengthen Africa’s food security. Africa has huge potential to produce hydrogen using its rich renewable resources. As much as today’s energy demand could be produced at internation- ally competitive price points by 2030. SIGNIFICANT INVESTMENT NEEDED Achieving Africa’s energy and climate goals means more than doubling energy investment this decade. This would take over US$190 billion each year from 2026 to 2030, with two-thirds going to clean energy. “Multilateral development banks must take urgent action to increase financial flows to Africa for both developing its energy sector and adapting to climate change,” says Birol. “The continent’s energy future requires stronger efforts on the ground that are backed by global support. The COP27 Climate Change Conference in Egypt in late 2022 provides a crucial platform for African leaders to set the agenda for the coming years. This decade is critical not only for global cli- mate action but also for the foundational investments that will allow Africa – home to the world’s youngest population – to flourish in the decades to come.”  Key findings Q Q Universal access to affordable electricity, achieved by 2030 in the Sustainable Africa Scenario , requires bringing connections to 90 million people a year – triple the rate of recent years. Q Q Achieving universal access to clean cooking fuels and technologies by 2030 requires shifting 130 million people away from dirty cooking fuels each year. Q Q The goal of universal access to modern energy calls for investment of US$25 billion per year. Q Q Africa is home to 60% of the best solar resources worldwide, but it currently holds only 1% of solar PV capacity. Q Q More than 5 000 billion m 3 of natural gas resources have been discovered in Africa which have not yet been approved for development. Q Q With the European Union aiming to halt Russian gas imports towards 2030, Africa in principle could supply an extra 30 billion m 3 in 2030. Q Q Africa accounts for over 40% of global reserves of cobalt, manganese and platinum – key minerals for bat- teries and hydrogen technologies. Q Q With further cost declines, Africa has the potential to produce 5 000 megatonnes of hydrogen per year at less than US$2/kg – equiva- lent to global total energy supply today. Q Q In the Sustainable Africa Scenario, around 4 million additional energy- related jobs are needed across the continent by 2030. Q Q Africa will remain a minor contrib- utor to global emissions, yet it needs to do far more to adapt to climate risks than the rest of the world.