Civil Engineering January-February 2022 | Vol 30 No 1

Civil Engineering January/February 2022 13 APPRAISAL The population predictions are chal- lenging in their own right, but they are even more challenging as local and global environmental and social trends complicate the matter. As signatories of the Paris Agreement, South Africa has committed to implementing measures to keep global warming below 2°C. President Cyril Ramaphosa called it a “watershed moment” when it was an- nounced that South Africa would receive USD$8.5 billion to help end its reliance on coal in a deal announced at the COP26 climate summit. The question that arises, however, is whether this will be enough. And what about the social inequities in the country? Based on its Gini coeffi- cient of 0.63, the World Bank (2015) labels South Africa as the most unequal country in the world. What this means became painfully apparent for a large part of the population during the hard Covid-19 lockdown in 2020. Meeting the needs of the nation and reducing social inequities while caring for the environment requires funding. Unfortunately, taxpayer volumes have not kept up with population growth due to outwards migration and economic chal- lenges (see Figure 3). To make sure South Africa meets its multiple societal objectives, namely environmental, social, and economic sus- tainability, which are unpacked further in the UN’s Sustainable Development Goals, a more holistic optimisation appraisal approach is required. South Africa is blessed with a world- class constitution, as well as policies and plans that promote a well thought out way forward. However, there is a clear disconnect between the country’s policies and plans and the reality on the ground. Too often implementation proposals are identified and assessed in an ad-hoc manner. Net Present Value (NPV) and Benefit Cost Ratio (BCR) are often used to justify investments while the impact on society is necklaced. Our industry, possibly even in conjunction with other industries, needs to move towards holistic appraisal practices to make sure that investments prioritise projects with the highest overall impact. To achieve this, criteria should include: Q Q Strategic fit – a strong case for action; the proposal/project is aligned to the achievement of stated goals and there is a clear fit with the community. Q Q Societal impact – where the triple bottom line is assessed and the pro- posal/project’s contribution to com- munity sustainability and resilience is clearly demonstrated. The latter needs to be evidence-based. Q Q Deliverability – is the proposal/ project capable of being implemented successfully? Have the risks been iden- tified, are they sufficiently mitigated, are there plans in place to realise the benefits, and is there a lifecycle or maintenance plan? RESPONSIBILITY South Africa has a long history and civil infrastructure and services have been around for centuries. The Woodhead Dam on Table Mountain, for example, was built in 1897 and recognised as an International Historic Civil Engineering Landmark by the American Society of Civil Engineers in 2008. Using the built- up area of Cape Town as an example, it Population (millions) 55 45 60 50 35 25 40 30 20 15 5 10 0 1975 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 1950 Year Figure 2 South African population prediction per age group (UN, 2019) 120 100 80 60 110 90 70 40 20 50 30 10 1975 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 1950 Year Figure 1 South African total population prediction (UN, 2019) Total population (millions) Figure 3 South African taxpayer base 2000 to 2020 (Treasury and Stats SA databases) Population (millions) 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Year Taxpayers Other