Civil Engineering March 2022 | Vol 30 No 2

60 March 2022 Civil Engineering infrastructure (i.e. incident analysis and data capturing) that is not performing ad- equately. This hinders an evidence-based response to fire safety issues as we do not know the magnitude of the problem. The estimated number of fire deaths in Figure 1 is incomplete for a separate reason. Many fire deaths occur in hospital after a fire incident has occurred, and deaths may even occur weeks later. Fire departments will not be aware of such deaths, and understandably so. In 2011 data from mortuaries showed that 2 243 people died from “exposure to smoke, fire and flames” which is a figure 447% higher than the FPASA data. 7 It is also unclear to what extent people who were injured in fires may die from other causes such as subsequent sepsis or organ failure and their deaths will not be attributed to fires. Hence, the number of fire deaths is prob- ably in the range of three to six times the actual fire department values. Figure 2 presents the value of losses estimated by fire departments between 2003 and 2020. 5 In the past five years the loss value has increased drastically from R2.7 billion in 2017 to R23 billion in 2021. This trend has been influenced by a number of large incidents. However, the 2021 data from the ex- tensive damage that occurred during pro- tests following the arrest of former presi- dent Jacob Zuma still has to be included. It is therefore probable that the 2021 data will be well in excess of fire losses ever recorded in South Africa. Furthermore, this data represents the estimates of fire department officials who have very little information regarding what was stored inside damaged buildings, the value of damaged materials and effects on building operations or business continuity. To place the data in context, it can be compared with data from the developed world such as the USA, as shown in Figure 3, 8 and England, as shown in Figure 4. 9 Both countries have seen a pro- gressive decrease in both the number of incidents and fatalities leading up to 2020. This makes the steady increase in fire incidents in South Africa of even greater concern when the adoption of fire safety building codes, enforcement by building code officials, involvement of qualified fire engineers and similar aspects should be leading to a decrease in incidents. It can be clearly seen that South Africa’s fire safety infrastructure as a 25 Value of reported fire losses (R billion) 20 15 10 5 0 Years 2003 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 Figure 2 Estimated national financial losses due to fire 5 Figure 4 Fire incidents in England 9 Total number of fire incidents 1 200 000 1 000 000 800 000 600 000 400 000 200 000 0 2025 2020 2015 2010 2005 2000 1995 Years Fires reported 3 500 000 Civilian deaths 3 000 000 2 500 000 2 000 000 1 500 000 1 000 000 500 000 0 8 000 7 000 6 000 5 000 4 000 3 000 2 000 0 1 000 Years 1980 2014 2012 2010 2008 2006 2004 2002 2000 1998 1996 1994 1992 1990 1988 1986 1984 1982 2020 2018 2016 Civilian deaths Fires reported Figure 3 Fire incidents in the USA showing reported fires per year, and civilian fire deaths by year 8 Includes the events of 9/11/2001