Civil Engineering September 2021 | Vol 29 No 8

48 September 2021 Civil Engineering Since the release of that secret military technology, we have GPS technology, Google Earth and all kinds of new drone and guidance technology that we now see as basic or standard technology. The decision to ban the research and use of tar versus bitumen binder may be a case of suppression in our midst. Even though decisions on this had already been taken, this may literally and figuratively be a case of ‘the pot calling the kettle black’. It has hallmark signs that tar may have become a sacrificial lamb to divert attention from bitumen regarding harmful substances released into the air when bituminous binders are heated to prepare hot mix asphalt. In that regard, the shift towards lower mix temperature warm mix asphalt and increasing interest in cold mix asphalt technologies are laud- able. However, some of the new age lower production temperature Lurgi tars also offer such low and cold mix opportunities and may warrant a relook. In analogy to working with substances that can potentially be harmful, it is worth noting that nuclear energy research is continued worldwide despite published cases of knowledge suppression and the well-known potential horrors of nuclear disasters (think Chernobyl). Suppression may often not work as well as intended. An ironic well-documented international ag- notology case study 6 involving secrecy and suppression by the International Atomic Agency and the USA is quoted with specific reference to the previous South African apartheid ‘rogue state’ which found ways to develop nuclear bomb capabilities despite the suppression of information. The question is how to focus on igno- rance in blue sky research with obvious potential for technology breakthrough that could become technology disruptors. Tim Harford 16 & 17 of The Undercover Economist fame describes how to move from sure fire staid research and rehashing of existing knowledge to tech- nology disruptor research. He calls this positive Black Swan research in reference to the concept first described by Nasim Taleb 18 . In effect it advocates the backing of ‘maverick’ researchers willing to ex- plore ignorance and not research projects with predetermined outcomes which are easy to manage. Wong 19 writes, according to Taleb, that, “humans are often caught off guard by or slow to recognise the rare and novel because they have a propensity to extend existing knowledge and experience to future events and experiences. Most of our thinking usually is limited in scope and we make assumptions based on what we see and know. The tyranny of conven- tional wisdom limits our imagination.” Our post Covid-19 period can be classified as disordered and chaotic. Wong states, “Disorder leads to Black Swans. Being messy allows us to think out of the box to find creative solutions for the imbalances in our economy and the dys- functions in our society. Yet we are often hardwired to stick with what is known, familiar and comfortable.” There is clearly opportunity for new innovative research and development, and research funders and foundations should take notice. However, since the “tobacco strategies” of funding friendly research to beguile or distract, there is much stronger recognition of the ‘healthy donor effect’. Kourny and Martin 8 is quoted as saying, “How research is funded, and organised… how research is evaluated and com- municated are all issues that directly may influence the production of ignorance.” Typically, recent major scientific journals now want full disclosure of agreements between researchers and donors to avoid this ‘healthy donor effect’. CONCLUDING REMARKS The upward traverse from the ‘Valley of Despair’ towards qualified experienced people in the civil engineering profession should be linked to a fundamental sup- port in education at all levels. We must be aware of the agnotology shroud around the realities of the real long-term impact of unqualified, ignorant inhabitants of ‘Mount Stupid’. Politicians must be helped to accept the longer sustainable climb out of the ‘Valley of Despair’ versus politically motivated ‘Mount Stupid’ quick-fix solutions. The current Covid-19 disruptor effect creates an ideal time for Black Swan re- search opportunity. The case is made here for blue sky research linked to researchers who are willing to explore ignorance and pursue areas where there is a lack of knowledge outside the confirmation bias environment of classical codification type research. This implies a willingness to explore not just new areas of knowledge, but also to examine reasons for sup- pression of knowledge and artificially produced agnotology. As an indication of such potential projects aimed at blue skies why don’t we look at the following: Q Q There is no doubt that the automotive industry is strategically realigning to a future in electric and battery vehicles. Ways and means need to be found relating to recharging infra- structure, linked to the obvious dawn of driverless vehicles and new and innovative ways to look at business models around this future transport environment. Innovation may lie in unshackling restrictive legislation and regulation around electric vehicles to help us jump forward in terms of logistics, travel, intelligent transport systems and our economy. Innovation is often process driven, not merely technology. This may in fact offer a different model for electronic tolling. Q Q Aerial robotic technology, inclusive of drone technology and the other technologies it is already linked to, as well as new fields of application must be embraced. Its use in visual surveys, monitoring of fixed asset conditions, project monitoring, quantity survey, etc. are just a few to mention. Q Q New age nanotechnology applica- tion in materials for road building should be pursued. It is clear this requires a paradigm shift in how we test and evaluate materials and their performance and to break through the limitations of previous paradigms. This field has the potential to cause disruptor technology impact on natural gravel and unbound granular material stabilisation and material beneficiation and improvement in roads and pavement engineering. Q Q The impact of the heavy vehicle simulator and associated accelerated pavement testing measuring tech- nology have catapulted South African pavement engineering and materials testing expertise to the forefront of knowledge worldwide. A new genera- tion versatile pavement testing facility is needed that will be able to do accel- erated testing and pavement behaviour monitoring in new and innovative ways. This implies new electric actua- tors, such as linear electric motors or servo-hydraulic systems, combined in an intelligent way. It may be outside our comfort zones, but it needs to be pursued.